A Very Improbable Story Integrated Math Lesson
What are the odds of waking up with a cat on your head? And, the cat is NOT yours!
A Very Improbable Story- where's the math???
Experiment - Dime from a Can of Coins
Experiment #1 – Can of Coins
What are the odds of pulling a dime out of a can of coins that are on Ethan’s bedroom shelf?
How many coins are in the car?
Do we know? Yes or No. Explain your answer
What coins are in the can? Could they all be the same?
Make an experiment where the results are certain, impossible, possible, likely, and unlikely. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
What are the odds of pulling a dime out of a can of coins that are on Ethan’s bedroom shelf?
How many coins are in the car?
Do we know? Yes or No. Explain your answer
What coins are in the can? Could they all be the same?
Make an experiment where the results are certain, impossible, possible, likely, and unlikely. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Experiment - Matching Socks
Experiment #2 - Matching Pair of Socks
Explain why there would be a low probability of finding a match with 10 pairs of socks.
How would the probability/outcome change if there were 20 pairs of socks?
Create a situation where the results are certain, impossible, possible, likely, and unlikely. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Explain why there would be a low probability of finding a match with 10 pairs of socks.
How would the probability/outcome change if there were 20 pairs of socks?
Create a situation where the results are certain, impossible, possible, likely, and unlikely. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Experiment - Bag of Marbles
Experiment #3 – Coloured Marbles
Explain why Odds says that in a 100 marbles with 4 colours – white, yellow, green and blue that the chance of picking out a white marble is 25/100 or 1 / 4 is too easy.
Is there a way to make this experiment more challenging? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Explain why Odds says that in a 100 marbles with 4 colours – white, yellow, green and blue that the chance of picking out a white marble is 25/100 or 1 / 4 is too easy.
Is there a way to make this experiment more challenging? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Experiment- Two White Marbles
Experiment #4 – Matching Two White Marbles
Explain how when the marbles are arranged in groups of 2, there would be 16 combinations of pairs?
How would the odds change if 2 green marbles, 3 blue marbles, or 2 yellow marbles are selected?
What would the combinations be if there were 4 colours and 6 colours? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Explain how when the marbles are arranged in groups of 2, there would be 16 combinations of pairs?
How would the odds change if 2 green marbles, 3 blue marbles, or 2 yellow marbles are selected?
What would the combinations be if there were 4 colours and 6 colours? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Experiment - Oatie Woofs
Experiment #5 - Oatie Woofs Cereal
Explain how Ethan says the results of the dog-shaped cereal is the same as the results of the marble game.
How many possible pairs of dog combinations are there if there are 5 different shapes of dog breeds?
How would the results change if there were 4 types of dog shapes and 6 types of dog shaped cereal? Explain.
Why does Ethan say that his winning pair had a low probability of winning?
Explain how Ethan says the results of the dog-shaped cereal is the same as the results of the marble game.
How many possible pairs of dog combinations are there if there are 5 different shapes of dog breeds?
How would the results change if there were 4 types of dog shapes and 6 types of dog shaped cereal? Explain.
Why does Ethan say that his winning pair had a low probability of winning?
Experiment - Shots and Goals on Net
Experiment #6 - Soccer Goals
High Shots – Explain Ethan’s answer that 5 / 20 shots is the same as 1 / 4 shots?
Why does Odds say the odds are good? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Low shots – Explain the results that 3 / 15 is the same as 2 / 5?
Does he use the same strategy in both calculations?
Why does Ethan say that a 2 in 5 chance is better than a 1 in 5 chance. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
High Shots – Explain Ethan’s answer that 5 / 20 shots is the same as 1 / 4 shots?
Why does Odds say the odds are good? Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Low shots – Explain the results that 3 / 15 is the same as 2 / 5?
Does he use the same strategy in both calculations?
Why does Ethan say that a 2 in 5 chance is better than a 1 in 5 chance. Use the APE Strategy to explain your thinking.
Penny for Your Thoughts on this Lesson ...
1. What aspects of the experiment/test did you find difficult? Straightforward?
2. How did it feel when you explained a different group's work? Was it difficult?
3. Do you think this book is a good tool to introduce experiments/tests involving probability. Explain your thoughts.
2. How did it feel when you explained a different group's work? Was it difficult?
3. Do you think this book is a good tool to introduce experiments/tests involving probability. Explain your thoughts.
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Scamorama
Using the game above, explain how this game can be set up so the odds are in the favour of the creators and not the contestant.
Design and write up the rules for your own game where the odds will be in your favour... how might you change it to make the odds in favour of the contestant?
Design and write up the rules for your own game where the odds will be in your favour... how might you change it to make the odds in favour of the contestant?
